Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia

This study aims to forecast the COVID-19 spread in Indonesia involving vaccination factors using vector autoregressive with exogenous variables (VARX). The COVID-19 spread represented by active, recovered, and death case rate indicators acts as endogenous variables, while the COVID-19 vaccination represented by second-dose vaccination rates acts as exogenous variables. Because the sum of three COVID-19 spread indicators in one day is one, only two indicators with the highest correlation rates are involved in VARX modelling. The other indicator is practically projected by subtracting one from the sum of two indicator projection results. Based on the analysis results, the active and recovered case rates are two indicators chosen in VARX modelling. Using Akaike information criterion, the most suitable VARX model to project the case and recovered case rates are VARX (7, 1). This model is expected to help the Indonesian government project the COVID-19 spread in Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Discrete Dynamics in Nature & Society is the property of Hindawi Limited and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

A Study of Psychometric Instruments and Constructs of Work-Related Stress among Seafarers: A Qualitative Approach.

Due to unpredictable and demanding working circumstances and the significant potential for dangers and accidents, seafaring has been characterised as one of the world's riskiest and stressful vocations that lead to physical and mental health problems. However, very few instruments measure work-related stress, particularly in a seafaring context. None of the instruments are psychometrically sound. Therefore, a valid and reliable instrument to measure seafaring work-related stress is indispensable. This study aims to review work-related stress instruments and to explore the work-related stress construct among seafarers in Malaysia. This study uses a systematic review and semi-structured interviews across two phases. In Phase 1, we conducted a systematic review of several databases: Academic Search Ultimate, Emerald Journal Premier, Journal Storage (JSTOR), ScienceDirect, Springer Link, Taylor and Francis Online, and Wiley Online Library based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analyses (PRISMA). In 8975 articles, only 4 (four) studies used psychological instruments and 5 (five) studies used survey questionnaires to measure work-related stress. In Phase 2, we conducted a semi-structured interview with 25 (twenty-five) seafarers, online due to COVID-19 restrictions. The semi-structured interview indicated 6 (six) themes, namely, physical stress, personal issues, social living onboard, technostress, work factors, and the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. In conclusion, the present study has identified three psychometric instruments for measuring work-related stress among seafarers: The Psychological General Well-Being Index, Perceived Stress Scale, and Job Content Questionnaire. We also found psychometric elements in some of the instruments are questionable, such as theoretical basis, construct development, and inadequate internal consistency value. In addition, this study also found that work-related stress is a multidimensional construct that needs to be studied based on work contexts. The findings of this study can contribute to the body of knowledge of a work-related stress construct in a seafaring context and could help to inform policy makers in the maritime industry. This study suggests a psychological instrument to measure work-related stress among seafarers in future studies.

Oil Spill Governance: Evidence from Bintan Island, Indonesia

Issues of oil spills in various locations worldwide have been widely published in several studies. However, studies on policy management and strategies for handling cases related to oil spills are still limited. As one of the largest oil-producing countries with international shipping traffic, Indonesia is vulnerable to oil spills. Therefore, by drawing upon evidence from Bintan Island, this study aims to provide recommendations for stakeholders concerning governance and policy to address the oil spill case, which has had adverse social, economic, and environmental impacts. Data were collected from semi-structured interviews, focus group discussion, observation, actual online news, and official government reports using a case study approach. The result indicates that the local government is slow in responding to Bintan Island’s reoccurring yearly oil spillage. Policy responses are still focused on repressive and conventional methods. Hence, preventive and multi-stakeholder governance is required to handle oil spills. Furthermore, this study provides an overview of the oil spill problem and its management strategy in developing countries, especially Indonesia.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Self-Isolation Policy on the Occupations of Vulnerable Groups.

Today, the spread of the Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to impact on world public health and bring about considerable human suffering partly due to government policies on reducing the spread. COVID-19 has significantly affected human health and it has impacted on the occupation of vulnerable groups such as tour guides, drivers and shop assistants. Of these, the present study aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 self-isolation policy on the occupation of vulnerable groups in Semarang City, Indonesia. To achieve this objective, this study uses a qualitative method with an ethnography approach considering a rational or non-rational thinking model. The binary opposition thinking pattern pioneered by Lévi-Strauss was used in the interview process with 25 informants in Semarang City, Indonesia. The data analyzed the response pattern of informants through the taxonomy analysis. Three levels of vulnerability among groups relating to occupation were identified; jobs lost, income decreased, and delayed salary. The result of the analysis found that the group who obeyed self-isolation was categorized as a rational thinking; these groups stay at home, do not go to work, and have no income. Besides that, the group who ignored self-isolation is categorized as non-rational thinking; they work, as usual, get their salary, and believe that the COVID-19 pandemic is a disaster and they pray for their safety to God. In conclusion, COVID-19 brings a significant impact on occupation in the forms of postponing, declining, and missing income besides the health effects among vulnerable groups in Semarang city, Indonesia. In avoiding COVID-19 infection, the circumstances of vulnerable groups are worse when self-isolation is required. Thus, this study suggests that the government needs to assist vulnerable groups by focusing on strategic policies, such as strategies for survival, providing access to basic needs, including health, and offering livelihood plans by providing access to medical services and other source of income.